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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 9 games
89%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 8 games
100%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 7 games
43%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 6 games
100%
Mirana
Miranasignature
XinQ · 6 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
XinQ · 5 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
XinQ · 5 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Xxs · 5 games
40%

Team Liquid

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
iNSaNiA · 19 games
58%
Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 16 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 13 games
62%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 12 games
58%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Nisha · 11 games
73%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 11 games
64%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 10 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
366 picks · 321 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
328 picks · 477 bans
58%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
326 picks · 313 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
272 picks · 387 bans
52%
Techies
Techies
259 picks · 174 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
258 picks · 347 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
257 picks · 143 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
251 picks · 469 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 48%
Hero pool strength59% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total55% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:26
Xtreme Gaming 54%Team Liquid 46%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 45:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageAme
45% · 89 games49% · 102 games
Dragon KnightNisha
Dragon Knight
Sniper
SniperXm
38% · 37 games49% · 93 games
SvenmiCKe
Sven
Windranger
WindrangerXinQ
54% · 243 games50% · 201 game
Doom33
Doom
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXxs
51% · 314 games60% · 204 games
TechiesBoxi
Techies
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenDy
55% · 193 games44% · 276 games
RubickiNSaNiA
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed5:24
Xtreme Gaming 52%Team Liquid 48%
The model gave 52% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 17:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenAme
52% · 77 games52% · 298 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXxs
47% · 158 games54% · 201 game
SlarkmiCKe
Slark
Leshrac
LeshracXm
52% · 102 games54% · 152 games
Enigma33
Enigma
Batrider
BatriderXinQ
47% · 273 games46% · 280 games
TinyBoxi
Tiny
Rubick
RubickDy
46% · 405 games52% · 84 games
OracleiNSaNiA
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2