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The International 2022: Last Chance · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Secretwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
ELeVeN · 9 games
78%
Lina
Linasignature
Paparazi · 9 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ELeVeN · 9 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Pyw · 8 games
63%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
ELeVeN · 8 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lou · 8 games
38%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Paparazi · 8 games
38%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Pyw · 8 games
38%

Team Secret

Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
44%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 16 games
69%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 14 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Zayac · 14 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Resolut1on · 10 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Resolut1on · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
541 picks · 419 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
452 picks · 666 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
327 picks · 745 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
322 picks · 444 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
295 picks · 492 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
285 picks · 361 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
256 picks · 837 bans
52%
Dazzle
Dazzle
249 picks · 157 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:25
Xtreme Gaming 44%Team Secret 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:00:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladelou
51% · 152 games53% · 48 games
Shadow FiendNisha
Shadow Fiend
Doom
DoomELeVeN
50% · 80 games47% · 50 games
Dark SeerResolut1on
Dark Seer
Death Prophet
Death ProphetPaparazi
48% · 180 games53% · 116 games
ViperCrystallis
Viper
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorDy
47% · 60 games56% · 129 games
ClockwerkPuppey
Clockwerk
Lion
LionPyw
45% · 44 games49% · 173 games
MarciZayac
Marci
Game 2prediction correct14:21
Xtreme Gaming 45%Team Secret 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 29:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlinglou
50% · 128 games43% · 54 games
Shadow FiendNisha
Shadow Fiend
Broodmother
BroodmotherELeVeN
46% · 39 games52% · 53 games
LycanResolut1on
Lycan
Pangolier
PangolierPaparazi
48% · 202 games46% · 79 games
DawnbreakerCrystallis
Dawnbreaker
Lion
LionPyw
48% · 113 games59% · 288 games
BanePuppey
Bane
Undying
UndyingDy
51% · 108 games51% · 116 games
Nyx AssassinZayac
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction correct25:28
Xtreme Gaming 47%Team Secret 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 39:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautlou
44% · 90 games54% · 179 games
Templar AssassinCrystallis
Templar Assassin
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendPaparazi
46% · 54 games52% · 116 games
MiranaResolut1on
Mirana
Slardar
SlardarELeVeN
49% · 39 games44% · 125 games
BatriderNisha
Batrider
Tiny
TinyPyw
53% · 297 games50% · 20 games
LichPuppey
Lich
Dazzle
DazzleDy
58% · 45 games51% · 85 games
Nyx AssassinZayac
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 59%
Series resultTeam Secret 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3