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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Secretloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Mirana
Miranasignature
Dy · 18 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 18 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
JT- · 14 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 13 games
38%
Rubick
Rubick
Kaka · 13 games
46%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ghost · 12 games
83%
Lion
Lion
Kaka · 12 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
JT- · 10 games
40%

Team Secret

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 14 games
64%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 13 games
31%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
yamich · 12 games
42%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
yamich · 11 games
27%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Armel · 10 games
40%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Armel · 9 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
640 picks · 690 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
476 picks · 323 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
459 picks · 988 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
394 picks · 850 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
391 picks · 936 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
391 picks · 353 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
380 picks · 1005 bans
57%
Pugna
Pugna
378 picks · 448 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 30%
Hero pool strength55% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:18
Xtreme Gaming 50%Team Secret 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 42:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerGhost
49% · 91 game55% · 45 games
HuskarArmel
Huskar
Snapfire
SnapfirePaparazi
49% · 263 games54% · 97 games
WindrangerCrystallis
Windranger
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritJT-
50% · 299 games43% · 195 games
MarsFbz
Mars
Rubick
RubickXinQ
45% · 456 games54% · 287 games
EnigmaPuppey
Enigma
Elder Titan
Elder TitanDy
51% · 37 games53% · 522 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed13:34
Xtreme Gaming 51%Team Secret 49%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Secret in 56:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinGhost
56% · 134 games50% · 559 games
Ember SpiritArmel
Ember Spirit
Lycan
LycanJT-
43% · 124 games51% · 272 games
TerrorbladeCrystallis
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierPaparazi
48% · 398 games52% · 171 game
VisageFbz
Visage
Rubick
RubickXinQ
42% · 622 games57% · 309 games
EnigmaPuppey
Enigma
Snapfire
SnapfireDy
47% · 335 games55% · 302 games
Monkey Kingyamich
Monkey King
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 52%
Accuracy by game0 of 2