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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team SMGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Mirana
Miranasignature
Dy · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tiny
Kaka · 12 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
JT- · 10 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
Kaka · 8 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 8 games
50%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
Ghost · 7 games
86%
Lion
Lionsignature
Kaka · 7 games
71%
Magnus
Magnus
JT- · 7 games
57%

Team SMG

Rubick
Rubick
Poloson · 15 games
47%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
MidOne · 12 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
Poloson · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boomy · 10 games
60%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
AhFu · 8 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MidOne · 7 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Moon · 7 games
43%
Undying
Undyingsignature
AhFu · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1000 picks · 707 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
631 picks · 465 bans
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
572 picks · 422 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
569 picks · 918 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
526 picks · 404 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
523 picks · 369 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
513 picks · 1212 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
499 picks · 383 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:19
Xtreme Gaming 57%Team SMG 43%
The model gave 57% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 41:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistGhost
51% · 52 games51% · 40 games
Centaur WarrunnerMidOne
Centaur Warrunner
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPaparazi
57% · 86 games49% · 69 games
KunkkaMoon
Kunkka
Brewmaster
BrewmasterJT-
53% · 30 games49% · 126 games
MiranaPoloson
Mirana
Phoenix
PhoenixKaka
48% · 95 games43% · 81 game
Crystal MaidenAhFu
Crystal Maiden
Pugna
PugnaDy
52% · 53 games
Game 2prediction correct36:26
Xtreme Gaming 59%Team SMG 41%
The model gave 59% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 46:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistGhost
48% · 59 games47% · 9 games
MuertaMidOne
Muerta
Underlord
UnderlordJT-
57% · 46 games50% · 235 games
Death ProphetMoon
Death Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierPaparazi
55% · 267 games43% · 217 games
EnchantressPoloson
Enchantress
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightKaka
51% · 117 games51% · 199 games
DisruptorAhFu
Disruptor
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenDy
49% · 171 game
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 62%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2