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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Mirana
Miranasignature
Dy · 15 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Kaka · 13 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 11 games
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
JT- · 10 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
Kaka · 10 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 8 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Dy · 7 games
43%
Doom
Doomoften banned
JT- · 7 games
43%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 47 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 27 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 21 game
86%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 21 game
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 19 games
79%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
72%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Larl · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1010 picks · 711 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
627 picks · 460 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
586 picks · 433 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
556 picks · 900 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
522 picks · 391 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
515 picks · 360 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
503 picks · 1202 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
502 picks · 1102 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 49%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:28
Xtreme Gaming 36%Team Spirit 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 51:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaGhost
54% · 74 games44% · 5 games
MuertaYatoro
Muerta
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPaparazi
55% · 102 games47% · 69 games
RikiLarl
Riki
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterJT-
70% · 23 games36% · 25 games
Ogre MagiCollapse
Ogre Magi
Pugna
PugnaDy
54% · 38 games43% · 204 games
EnchantressMiposhka
Enchantress
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenKaka
45% · 149 games57% · 83 games
Skywrath MageMira
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct28:41
Xtreme Gaming 31%Team Spirit 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:03:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritPaparazi
43% · 380 games57% · 93 games
BloodseekerYatoro
Bloodseeker
Slark
SlarkGhost
47% · 124 games48% · 281 game
PangolierLarl
Pangolier
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiJT-
55% · 39 games56% · 77 games
UnderlordCollapse
Underlord
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightKaka
45% · 130 games50% · 165 games
Crystal MaidenMiposhka
Crystal Maiden
Jakiro
JakiroDy
53% · 129 games51% · 186 games
DisruptorMira
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 77%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2