PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO5
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 2:3series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:3
Team Spiritwin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 24 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 20 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 19 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 19 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 17 games
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 17 games
Snipersignature
Xm · 15 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 14 games
Team Spirit
Rubick
Mira · 23 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 22 games
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 21 game
Tinyoften banned
Mira · 21 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 20 games
Lionsignature
Mira · 19 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 18 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
487 picks · 215 bans
Tiny
440 picks · 637 bans
Batrider
419 picks · 738 bans
Centaur Warrunner
399 picks · 569 bans
Rubick
396 picks · 166 bans
Gyrocopter
393 picks · 348 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 772 bans
Mars
340 picks · 562 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total70% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:9
Xtreme Gaming 63%Team Spirit 37%
The model gave 63% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 44:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerAme
TerrorbladeYatoro
Dark SeerXxs
LinaLarl
RazorXm
MarsCollapse
RikiXinQ
IoMira
BaneDy
GrimstrokeMiposhka
Game 2prediction missed18:29
Xtreme Gaming 63%Team Spirit 37%
The model gave 63% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 49:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinXm
JuggernautYatoro
LifestealerAme
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
KunkkaXxs
RazorLarl
Naga SirenXinQ
BaneMira
EnchantressDy
PugnaMiposhka
Game 3prediction correct27:25
Xtreme Gaming 63%Team Spirit 37%
The model gave 63% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 47:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterAme
SvenYatoro
LeshracXm
Primal BeastCollapse
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Dragon KnightLarl
GrimstrokeXinQ
BatriderMiposhka
MarciDy
Dark WillowMira
Game 4prediction missed11:34
Xtreme Gaming 59%Team Spirit 41%
The model gave 59% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordAme
Faceless VoidYatoro
Templar AssassinXm
ZeusLarl
Primal BeastXxs
SlardarCollapse
GrimstrokeXinQ
EnchantressMiposhka
VenomancerDy
PugnaMira
Game 5prediction missed31:36
Xtreme Gaming 62%Team Spirit 38%
The model gave 62% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 58:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckXm
Anti-MageYatoro
Faceless VoidAme
LeshracLarl
PangolierXxs
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
MarciXinQ
BatriderMiposhka
EnchantressDy
Shadow DemonMira
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 70%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5