?
arrow_backBack to match
Clavision Snow Ruyi Invitational · BO5
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 3:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Team Spiritloss 1:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 31 game
68%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 30 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 29 games
72%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 22 games
59%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 20 games
70%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 19 games
68%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 18 games
78%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 17 games
65%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 29 games
41%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 28 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 27 games
78%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Miposhka · 27 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 25 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 22 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 21 game
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 19 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
412 picks · 420 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
409 picks · 306 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
403 picks · 902 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
392 picks · 813 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 539 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
352 picks · 706 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
347 picks · 481 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
316 picks · 385 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total58% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:20
Xtreme Gaming 55%Team Spirit 45%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 48:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAme
44% · 147 games50% · 149 games
MuertaYatoro
Muerta
Brewmaster
BrewmasterXxs
55% · 189 games47% · 314 games
Dragon KnightLarl
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierXm
53% · 287 games49% · 250 games
BeastmasterCollapse
Beastmaster
Hoodwink
HoodwinkXinQ
48% · 174 games53% · 303 games
GrimstrokeMira
Grimstroke
Phoenix
PhoenixDy
49% · 272 games52% · 53 games
OracleMiposhka
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct34:12
Xtreme Gaming 56%Team Spirit 44%
The model gave 56% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaAme
41% · 51 game56% · 102 games
Dark SeerCollapse
Dark Seer
Sand King
Sand KingXxs
50% · 64 games54% · 68 games
Monkey KingYatoro
Monkey King
Tinker
TinkerXinQ
little data49% · 98 games
PuckLarl
Puck
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXm
58% · 124 games49% · 71 game
JakiroMira
Jakiro
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDy
46% · 148 games46% · 48 games
PugnaMiposhka
Pugna
Game 3prediction missed6:34
Xtreme Gaming 54%Team Spirit 46%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 28:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXxs
53% · 177 games53% · 128 games
Dragon KnightYatoro
Dragon Knight
Muerta
MuertaAme
47% · 123 games50% · 180 games
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Centaur Warrunner
Void Spirit
Void SpiritXm
42% · 118 games50% · 97 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerXinQ
50% · 193 games53% · 124 games
Shadow DemonMira
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
JakiroDy
49% · 97 games53% · 179 games
WeaverMiposhka
Weaver
Game 4prediction correct35:8
Xtreme Gaming 53%Team Spirit 47%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 32:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAme
48% · 232 games53% · 240 games
WeaverYatoro
Weaver
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXxs
51% · 250 games45% · 172 games
BeastmasterCollapse
Beastmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritXm
43% · 235 games51% · 182 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Mirana
MiranaXinQ
58% · 86 games49% · 292 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Phoenix
PhoenixDy
48% · 306 games55% · 223 games
GrimstrokeMiposhka
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 58%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4