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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Poloson · 38 games
53%
Muerta
Muerta
Pyw · 22 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 21 game
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 19 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 17 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 16 games
56%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Poloson · 16 games
88%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
niu · 15 games
40%

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muerta
rue · 29 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 28 games
61%
Tusk
Tusk
Miposhka · 26 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
79%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 23 games
70%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 22 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Satanic · 22 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
516 picks · 728 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
473 picks · 466 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
470 picks · 753 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
451 picks · 356 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
414 picks · 501 bans
49%
Magnus
Magnus
414 picks · 1036 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
404 picks · 933 bans
60%
Pangolier
Pangolier
390 picks · 538 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 73%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total72% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:18
Xtreme Gaming 37%Team Spirit 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerAme
54% · 163 games49% · 154 games
MorphlingYatoro
Morphling
Axe
AxeXxs
47% · 35 games52% · 248 games
TinyLarl
Tiny
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXm
56% · 211 games45% · 41 game
TidehunterCollapse
Tidehunter
Marci
MarciXinQ
49% · 131 game42% · 37 games
Nature's Prophetrue
Nature's Prophet
Silencer
SilencerUndyne_
51% · 20 games47% · 80 games
Elder TitanMiposhka
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct25:43
Xtreme Gaming 37%Team Spirit 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:14:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyAme
53% · 345 games47% · 116 games
SvenYatoro
Sven
Dazzle
DazzleXm
46% · 34 games55% · 32 games
RikiLarl
Riki
Mars
MarsXxs
52% · 166 games53% · 192 games
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Centaur Warrunner
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionUndyne_
49% · 16 games46% · 179 games
Muertarue
Muerta
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterXinQ
51% · 57 games47% · 99 games
JakiroMiposhka
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 72%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2