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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
XinQ · 30 games
70%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ame · 29 games
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 25 games
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Ame · 23 games
61%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Poloson · 22 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 22 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
天命 · 22 games
64%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
65%

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 37 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 35 games
66%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 25 games
72%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 25 games
80%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
65%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Yatoro · 22 games
59%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
rue · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
550 picks · 625 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
493 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
447 picks · 398 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
422 picks · 468 bans
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
411 picks · 849 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
387 picks · 565 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
386 picks · 358 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
363 picks · 537 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total70% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:44
Xtreme Gaming 37%Team Spirit 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 43:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckXm
55% · 254 games52% · 46 games
Faceless VoidYatoro
Faceless Void
Abaddon
AbaddonAme
52% · 124 games46% · 473 games
PangolierCollapse
Pangolier
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerXxs
51% · 185 games55% · 286 games
Ember SpiritLarl
Ember Spirit
Batrider
BatriderPoloson
52% · 308 games41% · 91 game
SilencerMiposhka
Silencer
Tusk
TuskXinQ
50% · 387 games45% · 362 games
Dark Willowrue
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct15:33
Xtreme Gaming 38%Team Spirit 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyAme
45% · 307 games55% · 98 games
Troll WarlordYatoro
Troll Warlord
Sniper
SniperXm
48% · 90 games39% · 133 games
Shadow FiendLarl
Shadow Fiend
Dark Seer
Dark SeerXxs
56% · 175 games55% · 249 games
MagnusCollapse
Magnus
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionXinQ
47% · 70 games54% · 119 games
Naga Sirenrue
Naga Siren
Jakiro
JakiroPoloson
45% · 218 games54% · 261 game
Shadow ShamanMiposhka
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 70%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2