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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Tideboundloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
XinQ · 29 games
79%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Poloson · 26 games
62%
Tiny
Tiny
Ame · 23 games
43%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
天命 · 22 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 22 games
73%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ame · 22 games
59%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
65%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Poloson · 19 games
63%

Team Tidebound

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 31 game
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 28 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 23 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 19 games
58%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
shiro · 19 games
58%
Windranger
Windranger
pLAnet · 18 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
y` · 17 games
59%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
shiro · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
430 picks · 374 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
352 picks · 184 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
334 picks · 330 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
331 picks · 784 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
322 picks · 828 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
275 picks · 365 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
274 picks · 538 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
273 picks · 621 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 4
Model total52% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:10
Xtreme Gaming 50%Team Tidebound 50%
The model gave 50% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageAme
56% · 17 games55% · 106 games
Templar Assassinshiro
Templar Assassin
Leshrac
LeshracXm
45% · 87 games55% · 112 games
TimbersawFaith_bian
Timbersaw
Undying
UndyingXxs
51% · 79 games50% · 84 games
Primal BeastNothingToSay
Primal Beast
Bane
BanexNova
40% · 72 games46% · 98 games
SnapfirepLAnet
Snapfire
Clockwerk
ClockwerkXinQ
56% · 214 games51% · 69 games
Silencery`
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct34:34
Xtreme Gaming 53%Team Tidebound 47%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:03:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckXm
53% · 243 games51% · 292 games
PangolierNothingToSay
Pangolier
Sven
SvenAme
49% · 127 games54% · 173 games
Templar Assassinshiro
Templar Assassin
Undying
UndyingXxs
50% · 91 game40% · 123 games
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanXinQ
53% · 246 games52% · 109 games
Ancient ApparitionpLAnet
Ancient Apparition
Elder Titan
Elder TitanxNova
49% · 94 games49% · 104 games
Disruptory`
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 52%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2