BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 1:0series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Yandexloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Warlocksignature
xNova · 21 game
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 19 games
Puckoften banned
Xm · 18 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 16 games
Elder Titansignature
xNova · 14 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Xxs · 13 games
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 13 games
Tusk
XinQ · 13 games
Team Yandex
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 21 game
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 20 games
Warlock
Solo · 19 games
Tusk
Malady · 17 games
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 16 games
Jakirosignature
Malady · 16 games
Gyrocoptersignature
TA2000 · 15 games
Axesignature
Noticed · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
778 picks · 357 bans
Disruptor
583 picks · 585 bans
Hoodwink
570 picks · 300 bans
Jakiro
479 picks · 300 bans
Dragon Knight
477 picks · 557 bans
Tusk
470 picks · 270 bans
Mars
458 picks · 747 bans
Puck
435 picks · 1116 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 70%
Hero pool strength50% Team Yandex
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:38
Xtreme Gaming 44%Team Yandex 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:12:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeAme
KezWatson
Sand KingNothingToSay
PangolierNoticed
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
LeshracChira JUNIOR
Snapfirefy
BaneSaksa
DisruptorxNova
DazzleMalady
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 65%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1