ACL X ESL Challenger China · BO1
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 1:0series probability
98%2%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TTToLight Teamloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Clockwerk
Poloson · 32 games
Muertasignature
Pyw · 23 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 23 games
Tinyoften banned
Pyw · 23 games
Morphlingsignature
Ame · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
niu · 18 games
Terrorbladesignature
niu · 18 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 17 games
ToLight Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
444 picks · 669 bans
Jakiro
403 picks · 402 bans
Phantom Assassin
351 picks · 719 bans
Bristleback
325 picks · 607 bans
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 525 bans
Muerta
312 picks · 187 bans
Beastmaster
298 picks · 580 bans
Warlock
294 picks · 272 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total98% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:5
Xtreme Gaming 85%ToLight Team 15%
The model gave 85% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 23:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinXm
Shadow Shamanbobo
Dark SeerXxs
Mirana谢乐zzz张泽中
UrsaAme
JakiroPoloson
RikiXinQ
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 98%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1