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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Mirana
Miranasignature
Dy · 15 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Kaka · 13 games
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
JT- · 10 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 10 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
Kaka · 9 games
44%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
Ghost · 7 games
86%
Lion
Lionsignature
Kaka · 7 games
71%
Magnus
Magnus
JT- · 7 games
57%

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Mirana
Sneyking · 32 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 31 game
55%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 24 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 23 games
74%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 22 games
68%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 20 games
70%
Riki
Rikisignature
Saksa · 19 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1011 picks · 710 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
630 picks · 461 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
584 picks · 430 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
559 picks · 902 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
523 picks · 394 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
516 picks · 363 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
507 picks · 1205 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
502 picks · 1104 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:20
Xtreme Gaming 30%Tundra Esports 70%
The model gave 70% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 26:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaGhost
49% · 87 games47% · 104 games
MedusaSkiter
Medusa
Doom
DoomJT-
53% · 129 games51% · 107 games
AlchemistNine
Alchemist
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPaparazi
55% · 83 games49% · 82 games
Dark Seer33
Dark Seer
Rubick
RubickKaka
48% · 220 games51% · 46 games
Bounty HunterSaksa
Bounty Hunter
Io
IoDy
55% · 38 games44% · 218 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct11:29
Xtreme Gaming 30%Tundra Esports 70%
The model gave 70% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerGhost
60% · 100 games53% · 107 games
Wraith KingSkiter
Wraith King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritPaparazi
45% · 272 games52% · 107 games
Underlord33
Underlord
Doom
DoomJT-
51% · 223 games58% · 35 games
OmniknightNine
Omniknight
Phoenix
PhoenixKaka
44% · 126 games46% · 421 game
SnapfireSaksa
Snapfire
Disruptor
DisruptorDy
45% · 208 games51% · 259 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 83%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2