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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 29 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 22 games
73%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 21 game
48%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 20 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 19 games
74%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 17 games
65%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 17 games
71%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 17 games
76%

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
Whitemon · 49 games
76%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 37 games
62%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 31 game
68%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 27 games
81%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 26 games
73%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Whitemon · 25 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 24 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 24 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
385 picks · 661 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
320 picks · 367 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
317 picks · 452 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
311 picks · 351 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
309 picks · 581 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
303 picks · 188 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
294 picks · 212 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
285 picks · 534 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total60% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:20
Xtreme Gaming 57%Tundra Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 34:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAme
52% · 210 games42% · 210 games
Dragon KnightPure~
Dragon Knight
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritXm
48% · 201 game49% · 237 games
MarsRAMZES666
Mars
Brewmaster
BrewmasterXxs
63% · 154 games46% · 136 games
SnapfireTopson
Snapfire
Rubick
RubickXinQ
50% · 329 games46% · 164 games
Terrorblade9Class
Terrorblade
Elder Titan
Elder TitanDy
55% · 121 game49% · 268 games
SvenWhitemon
Sven
Game 2prediction missed16:38
Xtreme Gaming 54%Tundra Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 54:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenAme
42% · 177 games54% · 130 games
Faceless VoidPure~
Faceless Void
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendXm
44% · 49 games52% · 163 games
Dark SeerRAMZES666
Dark Seer
Pangolier
PangolierXxs
52% · 289 games50% · 298 games
RubickTopson
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkXinQ
51% · 170 games49% · 41 game
JakiroWhitemon
Jakiro
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiDy
41% · 25 games59% · 78 games
Spirit Breaker9Class
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 60%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2