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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Virtus.proloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 26 games
69%
Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 26 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 20 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 19 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 18 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 17 games
59%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 17 games
82%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 17 games
47%

Virtus.pro

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 30 games
43%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 27 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 24 games
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 23 games
57%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 22 games
55%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 21 game
81%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Fly · 18 games
56%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 18 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
652 picks · 821 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
566 picks · 589 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 404 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
460 picks · 310 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
413 picks · 1066 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
388 picks · 692 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 619 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
378 picks · 982 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total60% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:20
Xtreme Gaming 57%Virtus.pro 43%
The model gave 57% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 52:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenAme
65% · 134 games52% · 104 games
SlarkTimado
Slark
Brewmaster
BrewmasterXxs
51% · 130 games45% · 455 games
Void SpiritAbed
Void Spirit
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
48% · 569 games48% · 474 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Jakiro
JakiroxNova
50% · 608 games48% · 643 games
WarlockFly
Warlock
Tiny
Tinyfy
53% · 483 games43% · 248 games
Dark WillowHellscream
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed20:32
Xtreme Gaming 56%Virtus.pro 44%
The model gave 56% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 44:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAme
48% · 300 games51% · 352 games
Templar AssassinTimado
Templar Assassin
Bristleback
BristlebackXxs
51% · 276 games51% · 202 games
InvokerAbed
Invoker
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNothingToSay
47% · 239 games52% · 238 games
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
Dark Seer
Jakiro
JakiroxNova
51% · 556 games47% · 327 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanfy
55% · 385 games48% · 637 games
TinyHellscream
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2