?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 23 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 22 games
64%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
65%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 18 games
72%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 18 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Pyw · 17 games
65%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Pyw · 17 games
65%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ame · 16 games
50%

Yakult Brothers

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 13 games
31%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Poloson · 10 games
60%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Emo · 10 games
70%
Muerta
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 10 games
60%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Poloson · 10 games
70%
Medusa
Medusasignature
flyfly · 9 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 9 games
44%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
466 picks · 626 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
397 picks · 443 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
341 picks · 487 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
337 picks · 422 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
317 picks · 619 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
312 picks · 166 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
297 picks · 368 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
279 picks · 279 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:14
Xtreme Gaming 56%Yakult Brothers 44%
The model gave 56% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusalou
48% · 126 games56% · 190 games
Lunaflyfly
Luna
Broodmother
Broodmotherniu
48% · 71 game45% · 157 games
PuckEmo
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritXm
44% · 124 games59% · 46 games
Elder Titanzeal
Elder Titan
Muerta
MuertaPyw
44% · 132 games43% · 6 games
TinkerBoBoKa
Tinker
Pugna
PugnaPoloson
53% · 120 games54% · 174 games
ClockwerkUndyne_
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct27:5
Xtreme Gaming 57%Yakult Brothers 43%
The model gave 57% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 28:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistlou
55% · 229 games48% · 226 games
Morphlingflyfly
Morphling
Void Spirit
Void SpiritXm
47% · 162 games50% · 223 games
PuckEmo
Puck
Mars
Marsniu
50% · 323 games53% · 192 games
Primal Beastzeal
Primal Beast
Muerta
MuertaPyw
47% · 166 games48% · 188 games
TimbersawBoBoKa
Timbersaw
Pugna
PugnaPoloson
53% · 193 games48% · 244 games
ClockwerkUndyne_
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 63%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2