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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 3:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ame · 28 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
XinQ · 25 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
天命 · 22 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 22 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 21 game
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Ame · 21 game
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
天命 · 20 games
65%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
65%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 27 games
63%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
zeal · 23 games
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
天命 · 22 games
55%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
62%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 21 game
62%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Emo · 21 game
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
天命 · 19 games
53%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 18 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
532 picks · 611 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
474 picks · 239 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
461 picks · 433 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
374 picks · 792 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
355 picks · 520 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
348 picks · 795 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
342 picks · 302 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
327 picks · 369 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 48%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total74% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:14
Xtreme Gaming 65%Yakult Brothers 35%
The model gave 65% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 38:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenAme
49% · 163 games52% · 167 games
Gyrocopterflyfly
Gyrocopter
Void Spirit
Void SpiritXm
45% · 73 games50% · 155 games
Storm SpiritEmo
Storm Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawXxs
45% · 138 games50% · 69 games
BrewmasterELeVeN
Brewmaster
Earthshaker
EarthshakerXinQ
60% · 120 games44% · 92 games
MarciBoBoKa
Marci
Silencer
SilencerPoloson
62% · 78 games45% · 89 games
WarlockOli
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct18:19
Xtreme Gaming 61%Yakult Brothers 39%
The model gave 61% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 51:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaAme
45% · 180 games58% · 102 games
Templar Assassinflyfly
Templar Assassin
Timbersaw
TimbersawXxs
41% · 121 game54% · 186 games
DoomELeVeN
Doom
Death Prophet
Death ProphetXm
45% · 36 games61% · 48 games
Void SpiritEmo
Void Spirit
Earthshaker
EarthshakerXinQ
47% · 120 games48% · 174 games
TerrorbladeBoBoKa
Terrorblade
Elder Titan
Elder TitanPoloson
48% · 125 games57% · 72 games
Naga SirenOli
Naga Siren
Game 3prediction correct30:10
Xtreme Gaming 64%Yakult Brothers 36%
The model gave 64% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 28:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerAme
50% · 38 games43% · 115 games
Linaflyfly
Lina
Pangolier
PangolierXxs
43% · 244 games51% · 26 games
AxeELeVeN
Axe
Slardar
SlardarXm
56% · 42 games47% · 67 games
Void SpiritEmo
Void Spirit
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPoloson
62% · 83 games49% · 191 game
Dark WillowBoBoKa
Dark Willow
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanXinQ
56% · 122 games46% · 130 games
Nature's ProphetOli
Nature's Prophet
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 74%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3