ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionYYACHE123loss 0:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
REKONIXwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
YACHE123
Earth Spirit
Sancity · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Sancity · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
ace12 · 1 game
Tinyoften banned
ace12 · 1 game
Tusk
ace12 · 1 game
Void Spirit
Sancity · 1 game
REKONIX
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 14 games
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 8 games
Queen of Painsignature
inYourdreaM · 8 games
Snapfire
dalul · 7 games
Tusksignature
dalul · 7 games
Gyrocoptersignature
TraVins · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
inYourdreaM · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
532 picks · 771 bans
Tusk
494 picks · 344 bans
Dragon Knight
463 picks · 638 bans
Centaur Warrunner
440 picks · 549 bans
Shadow Demon
378 picks · 664 bans
Gyrocopter
353 picks · 565 bans
Mars
339 picks · 462 bans
Hoodwink
328 picks · 145 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% REKONIX
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% REKONIX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:32
YACHE123 30%REKONIX 70%
The model gave 70% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 30:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RubickSancity
BeastmasterFbz
Clockwerkace12
WindrangerTraVins
42% · 11 games
ViperinYourdreaM
61% · 14 games
Faceless Voiddalul
49% · 52 games
DisruptorVarizh
Game 2prediction correct14:44
YACHE123 29%REKONIX 71%
The model gave 71% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 24:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinySancity
WindrangerTraVins
Keeper of the Lightace12
RazorFbz
52% · 159 games
Storm SpiritinYourdreaM
51% · 40 games
UndyingVarizh
52% · 25 games
Faceless Voiddalul
Model check result
Model favoriteREKONIX · 85%
Series resultREKONIX 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2