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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brothersloss 1:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
AVULUSwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
BoBoKa · 24 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 21 game
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 18 games
61%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Emo · 17 games
71%
Muerta
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 15 games
73%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 15 games
60%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BoBoKa · 14 games
71%

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 44 games
68%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 39 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 38 games
61%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 31 game
77%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 31 game
61%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 29 games
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 28 games
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 27 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
488 picks · 422 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
451 picks · 527 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
444 picks · 549 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
443 picks · 564 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
434 picks · 231 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
421 picks · 781 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
386 picks · 586 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
384 picks · 434 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 51%
Hero pool strength54% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:32
Yakult Brothers 46%AVULUS 54%
The model gave 54% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 39:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterAme
53% · 341 game41% · 96 games
Phantom AssassinSmiling Knight
Phantom Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEmo
57% · 219 games50% · 488 games
TinyStormstormer
Tiny
Enigma
Enigmazeal
57% · 126 games47% · 223 games
DawnbreakerXibbe
Dawnbreaker
Phoenix
Phoenix天命
48% · 361 game40% · 272 games
SnapfireEkki
Snapfire
Magnus
MagnusBoBoKa
56% · 219 games51% · 187 games
LichSoNNeikO
Lich
Game 2prediction correct22:44
Yakult Brothers 41%AVULUS 59%
The model gave 59% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 42:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAme
45% · 410 games57% · 90 games
UrsaSmiling Knight
Ursa
Tidehunter
Tidehunterzeal
52% · 89 games54% · 402 games
TinyStormstormer
Tiny
Invoker
InvokerEmo
45% · 239 games50% · 133 games
EnigmaXibbe
Enigma
Lion
LionBoBoKa
52% · 278 games47% · 249 games
TuskEkki
Tusk
Lich
Lich天命
51% · 170 games47% · 312 games
PhoenixSoNNeikO
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct7:38
Yakult Brothers 41%AVULUS 59%
The model gave 59% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 27:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritEmo
46% · 187 games57% · 97 games
Phantom AssassinSmiling Knight
Phantom Assassin
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordAme
48% · 147 games50% · 327 games
TinyStormstormer
Tiny
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzeal
45% · 292 games54% · 105 games
Dark SeerXibbe
Dark Seer
Magnus
MagnusBoBoKa
50% · 243 games47% · 309 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Lich
Lich天命
44% · 154 games60% · 185 games
PugnaSoNNeikO
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 64%
Series resultAVULUS 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3