DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Crocodileloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yakult Brothers
Clockwerkoften banned
Poloson · 16 games
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 16 games
Invokersignature
Emo · 15 games
Medusasignature
flyfly · 12 games
Muerta
BoBoKa · 12 games
Phoenix
天命 · 12 games
Pucksignature
Emo · 11 games
Tusksignature
Poloson · 11 games
Crocodile
Doomoften banned
Irving · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
Irving · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
ukiyo · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
403 picks · 512 bans
Muerta
395 picks · 320 bans
Tusk
364 picks · 384 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 567 bans
Lion
339 picks · 164 bans
Batrider
335 picks · 418 bans
Beastmaster
330 picks · 760 bans
Gyrocopter
311 picks · 458 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 38%
Hero pool strength61% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:10
Yakult Brothers 80%Crocodile 20%
The model gave 80% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 27:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckEmo
Doomxiaoyu154
Lycanzeal
UrsaManic
Monkey KingAme
BatriderHara
Phoenix天命
MagnusBoBoKa
Game 2prediction correct33:18
Yakult Brothers 78%Crocodile 22%
The model gave 78% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 40:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingAme
Doomxiaoyu154
PuckEmo
MuertaManic
Tidehunterzeal
MagnusHara
EnchantressBoBoKa
Clockwerk天命
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 92%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2