?
arrow_backBack to match
BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Yakult Brothersloss 0:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Execrationwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 33 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 20 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 19 games
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 18 games
50%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 18 games
61%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
zeal · 17 games
65%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Emo · 14 games
36%

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 26 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 17 games
59%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
cml · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Shanks · 15 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 14 games
71%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 14 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 13 games
62%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Shanks · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
613 picks · 301 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
532 picks · 536 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
393 picks · 1100 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
367 picks · 193 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
355 picks · 598 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
350 picks · 392 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
349 picks · 157 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
340 picks · 262 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:24
Yakult Brothers 53%Execration 47%
The model gave 53% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Execration in 27:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracEmo
47% · 103 games47% · 179 games
Nature's ProphetPalos
Nature's Prophet
Enigma
Enigmazeal
54% · 66 games43% · 45 games
SniperBob
Sniper
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinflyfly
56% · 145 games45% · 139 games
MarsTino-
Mars
Pudge
PudgeBoBoKa
53% · 30 games45% · 28 games
ZeusShanks
Zeus
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPoloson
55% · 92 games55% · 45 games
Dazzlecml
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 55%
Series resultExecration 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1