DreamLeague Season 25 · BO1
result vs prediction
Yakult Brothersloss 0:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yakult Brothers
Clockwerkoften banned
BoBoKa · 34 games
Phoenixoften banned
天命 · 24 games
Pucksignature
Emo · 23 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 23 games
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 22 games
Invokersignature
Emo · 21 game
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 20 games
Magnussignature
BoBoKa · 18 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Muertasignature
tOfu · 34 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 21 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 18 games
Doomoften banned
Ace · 17 games
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 17 games
Sniperoften banned
Quinn · 17 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 16 games
Chenoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
515 picks · 809 bans
Tiny
513 picks · 628 bans
Clockwerk
491 picks · 496 bans
Batrider
464 picks · 569 bans
Muerta
435 picks · 368 bans
Magnus
428 picks · 1022 bans
Gyrocopter
409 picks · 776 bans
Lich
391 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total58% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:41
Yakult Brothers 45%Gaimin Gladiators 55%
The model gave 55% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 35:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyAme
Phantom AssassinWatson
MagnusEmo
Queen of PainQuinn
WeaverBoBoKa
BristlebackAce
Marszeal
WarlockMalady
Phoenix天命
MuertatOfu
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 58%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1