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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brothersloss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
BoBoKa · 29 games
62%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 21 game
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 21 game
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Emo · 19 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 18 games
72%
Muerta
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 17 games
65%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
69%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 16 games
63%

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 24 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
No!ob · 21 game
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 21 game
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 19 games
47%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
No!ob · 19 games
58%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 19 games
79%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 17 games
82%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
532 picks · 730 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
494 picks · 576 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
489 picks · 613 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
484 picks · 412 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
480 picks · 578 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
447 picks · 802 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
445 picks · 980 bans
57%
Lion
Lion
402 picks · 230 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:23
Yakult Brothers 49%Nigma Galaxy 51%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 47:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinAme
46% · 96 games50% · 155 games
LinaSumaiL
Lina
Terrorblade
Terrorbladezeal
52% · 136 games53% · 183 games
LifestealerGhost
Lifestealer
Tiny
TinyEmo
52% · 395 games43% · 43 games
AbaddonNo!ob
Abaddon
Zeus
Zeus天命
46% · 109 games50% · 419 games
BatriderGH
Batrider
Lion
LionBoBoKa
51% · 211 games54% · 147 games
Nyx AssassinOmaR
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct21:32
Yakult Brothers 49%Nigma Galaxy 51%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 49:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaEmo
56% · 140 games47% · 146 games
Phantom AssassinGhost
Phantom Assassin
Tiny
TinyAme
48% · 318 games55% · 337 games
DoomNo!ob
Doom
Primal Beast
Primal Beastzeal
49% · 165 games53% · 223 games
InvokerSumaiL
Invoker
Zeus
Zeus天命
37% · 88 games53% · 222 games
PugnaGH
Pugna
Phoenix
PhoenixBoBoKa
51% · 264 games51% · 47 games
RikiOmaR
Riki
Game 3prediction correct16:59
Yakult Brothers 46%Nigma Galaxy 54%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 39:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerAme
43% · 56 games51% · 118 games
Phantom AssassinGhost
Phantom Assassin
Tiny
TinyEmo
46% · 387 games52% · 260 games
PuckSumaiL
Puck
Batrider
Batrider天命
44% · 359 games56% · 93 games
LycanNo!ob
Lycan
Warlock
WarlockBoBoKa
47% · 47 games56% · 382 games
ClockwerkOmaR
Clockwerk
Primal Beast
Primal Beastzeal
47% · 156 games58% · 152 games
LichGH
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 51%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3