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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Nemesisloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 18 games
44%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 15 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 13 games
46%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
flyfly · 12 games
42%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
flyfly · 12 games
42%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
BoBoKa · 11 games
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Emo · 11 games
45%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
BEYOND · 10 games
50%

Team Nemesis

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jing · 5 games
80%
Tiny
Tiny
Akashi · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 4 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 3 games
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Raven · 3 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Raven · 3 games
100%
Razor
Razor
Akashi · 3 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Jing · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
445 picks · 415 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
361 picks · 194 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
341 picks · 346 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
331 picks · 804 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
322 picks · 846 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
286 picks · 393 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
283 picks · 221 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
278 picks · 539 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 67%
Hero pool strength60% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:12
Yakult Brothers 54%Team Nemesis 46%
The model gave 54% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 32:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetflyfly
52% · 228 games51% · 183 games
DoomAkashi
Doom
Earthshaker
EarthshakerEmo
50% · 150 games47% · 232 games
Storm SpiritMac
Storm Spirit
Night Stalker
Night StalkerBEYOND
51% · 103 games57% · 112 games
EnigmaRaven
Enigma
Muerta
MuertaBoBoKa
43% · 291 game46% · 327 games
TuskJing
Tusk
Bane
BaneOli
52% · 82 games
Game 2prediction missed12:19
Yakult Brothers 53%Team Nemesis 47%
The model gave 53% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 26:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeflyfly
41% · 205 games51% · 204 games
Nature's ProphetAkashi
Nature's Prophet
Night Stalker
Night StalkerBEYOND
49% · 58 games52% · 152 games
Dark SeerRaven
Dark Seer
Slardar
SlardarEmo
52% · 63 games58% · 136 games
Void SpiritMac
Void Spirit
Puck
PuckBoBoKa
50% · 242 games44% · 139 games
LionJing
Lion
Bane
BaneOli
55% · 63 games
Game 3prediction correct22:5
Yakult Brothers 56%Team Nemesis 44%
The model gave 56% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 39:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingflyfly
50% · 225 games51% · 244 games
Templar AssassinAkashi
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckEmo
57% · 259 games49% · 366 games
Dragon KnightMac
Dragon Knight
Bristleback
BristlebackBEYOND
58% · 276 games43% · 277 games
DawnbreakerRaven
Dawnbreaker
Muerta
MuertaBoBoKa
49% · 333 games50% · 289 games
LionJing
Lion
Disruptor
DisruptorOli
43% · 83 games
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 60%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3