?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brothersloss 1:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Secretwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
BoBoKa · 29 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
天命 · 24 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 21 game
43%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Emo · 19 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 19 games
74%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 18 games
61%
Muerta
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 17 games
65%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
69%

Team Secret

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 14 games
36%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 13 games
54%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 11 games
36%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
MikSa` · 11 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
423 · 10 games
60%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kyzko · 9 games
33%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 9 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
545 picks · 752 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
506 picks · 579 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
499 picks · 620 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
494 picks · 586 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
486 picks · 411 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
454 picks · 990 bans
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
452 picks · 807 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
405 picks · 625 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:17
Yakult Brothers 60%Team Secret 40%
The model gave 60% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 31:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinAme
46% · 128 games48% · 343 games
MorphlingParker
Morphling
Puck
PuckEmo
50% · 382 games55% · 123 games
EarthshakerSupream^
Earthshaker
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzeal
50% · 363 games46% · 478 games
PangolierMikSa`
Pangolier
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoBoKa
49% · 506 games52% · 329 games
Shadow DemonThiolicor
Shadow Demon
Elder Titan
Elder Titan天命
58% · 188 games46% · 294 games
EnchantressPuppey
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed18:29
Yakult Brothers 54%Team Secret 46%
The model gave 54% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Team Secret in 29:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAme
45% · 256 games47% · 58 games
LycanMikSa`
Lycan
Marci
Marcizeal
49% · 65 games55% · 302 games
GyrocopterParker
Gyrocopter
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightEmo
48% · 288 games46% · 184 games
Ember SpiritSupream^
Ember Spirit
Io
IoBoBoKa
44% · 51 game58% · 99 games
ChenPuppey
Chen
Zeus
Zeus天命
50% · 98 games57% · 115 games
Nyx AssassinThiolicor
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction missed9:35
Yakult Brothers 54%Team Secret 46%
The model gave 54% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Team Secret in 37:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerAme
45% · 43 games44% · 101 game
MedusaParker
Medusa
Bristleback
Bristlebackzeal
55% · 202 games51% · 223 games
Storm SpiritSupream^
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEmo
45% · 213 games53% · 198 games
TimbersawMikSa`
Timbersaw
Warlock
Warlock天命
46% · 32 games57% · 110 games
ChenPuppey
Chen
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoBoKa
47% · 341 game54% · 199 games
LionThiolicor
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 63%
Series resultTeam Secret 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3