DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Tideboundloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yakult Brothers
Clockwerkoften banned
Poloson · 17 games
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 17 games
Invokersignature
Emo · 15 games
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 14 games
Pucksignature
Emo · 13 games
Medusasignature
flyfly · 12 games
Muerta
BoBoKa · 12 games
Morphlingoften banned
flyfly · 11 games
Team Tidebound
Hoodwink
pLAnet · 2 games
Sniperoften banned
NothingToSay · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
shiro · 1 game
Bounty Hunteroften banned
pLAnet · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
Faith_bian · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
y` · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Faith_bian · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
shiro · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
412 picks · 534 bans
Muerta
404 picks · 334 bans
Tusk
365 picks · 387 bans
Lion
354 picks · 178 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 581 bans
Batrider
347 picks · 433 bans
Beastmaster
337 picks · 798 bans
Phoenix
327 picks · 336 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 75%
Hero pool strength54% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:16
Yakult Brothers 46%Team Tidebound 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 1:04:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeAme
Bristlebackshiro
Dawnbreakerzeal
LycanFaith_bian
InvokerEmo
KunkkaNothingToSay
ZeusBoBoKa
HoodwinkpLAnet
Shadow Demon天命
Tusky`
Game 2prediction missed27:14
Yakult Brothers 48%Team Tidebound 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 41:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaAme
EarthshakerNothingToSay
Tidehunterzeal
Muertashiro
Storm SpiritEmo
BeastmasterFaith_bian
EnchantressBoBoKa
Shadow DemonpLAnet
Pugna天命
Bounty Huntery`
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 56%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2