?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brothersloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
BoBoKa · 23 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 20 games
45%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Emo · 17 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 17 games
65%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 14 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 14 games
57%
Muerta
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
62%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BoBoKa · 12 games
75%

Team Tidebound

Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
pLAnet · 4 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
NothingToSay · 4 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 4 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
pLAnet · 4 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 3 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Faith_bian · 3 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
pLAnet · 3 games
100%
Muerta
Muerta
shiro · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
482 picks · 402 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
449 picks · 560 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
414 picks · 518 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
408 picks · 218 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
402 picks · 668 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
394 picks · 444 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
370 picks · 592 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
356 picks · 913 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 71%
Hero pool strength51% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total60% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct1:22
Yakult Brothers 45%Team Tidebound 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 24:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerAme
55% · 153 games49% · 310 games
Gyrocoptershiro
Gyrocopter
Lina
LinaEmo
47% · 137 games54% · 196 games
BeastmasterFaith_bian
Beastmaster
Terrorblade
Terrorbladezeal
42% · 206 games58% · 90 games
Keeper of the LightNothingToSay
Keeper of the Light
Batrider
BatriderBoBoKa
44% · 469 games54% · 236 games
LionpLAnet
Lion
Marci
Marci天命
48% · 160 games51% · 293 games
Phoenixy`
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct13:26
Yakult Brothers 44%Team Tidebound 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 34:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerAme
54% · 115 games50% · 420 games
Gyrocoptershiro
Gyrocopter
Tiny
TinyEmo
48% · 315 games47% · 83 games
EarthshakerNothingToSay
Earthshaker
Terrorblade
Terrorbladezeal
44% · 122 games51% · 250 games
Primal BeastFaith_bian
Primal Beast
Batrider
BatriderBoBoKa
53% · 345 games50% · 151 game
GrimstrokepLAnet
Grimstroke
Zeus
Zeus天命
49% · 77 games55% · 70 games
Shadow Shamany`
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 60%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2