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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tearlamentsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 22 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 17 games
47%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 17 games
59%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
flyfly · 13 games
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
flyfly · 13 games
38%
Bane
Bane
Oli · 12 games
42%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 12 games
42%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
BEYOND · 11 games
55%

Tearlaments

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
poyoyo · 8 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Srf · 7 games
43%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
7e · 7 games
86%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Echo · 6 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Echo · 6 games
100%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
7e · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Echo · 6 games
83%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
zzq · 5 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
320 picks · 787 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
318 picks · 296 bans
48%
Pugna
Pugna
274 picks · 301 bans
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 172 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
271 picks · 746 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
267 picks · 248 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
266 picks · 129 bans
56%
Marci
Marci
261 picks · 774 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 70%
Hero pool strength59% Tearlaments
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total57% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:9
Yakult Brothers 51%Tearlaments 49%
The model gave 51% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 29:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageflyfly
50% · 29 games41% · 187 games
Terrorbladepoyoyo
Terrorblade
Dark Seer
Dark Seerzeal
51% · 129 games48% · 139 games
Void SpiritEcho
Void Spirit
Puck
PuckEmo
50% · 348 games44% · 154 games
MarsSrf
Mars
Slark
SlarkBoBoKa
56% · 53 games55% · 147 games
Pugnazzq
Pugna
Enchantress
EnchantressPoloson
59% · 178 games44% · 110 games
Hoodwink7e
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed10:23
Yakult Brothers 52%Tearlaments 48%
The model gave 52% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 42:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckEmo
48% · 230 games50% · 172 games
Medusapoyoyo
Medusa
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightflyfly
53% · 239 games53% · 220 games
EarthshakerEcho
Earthshaker
Enigma
Enigmazeal
55% · 93 games46% · 135 games
Centaur WarrunnerSrf
Centaur Warrunner
Pugna
PugnaPoloson
50% · 198 games45% · 178 games
Hoodwink7e
Hoodwink
Alchemist
AlchemistBoBoKa
57% · 95 games45% · 150 games
Disruptorzzq
Disruptor
Game 6prediction correct27:19
Yakult Brothers 53%Tearlaments 47%
The model gave 53% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 30:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageflyfly
54% · 34 games49% · 83 games
Lunapoyoyo
Luna
Earthshaker
Earthshakerzeal
60% · 250 games47% · 319 games
PuckEcho
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritEmo
51% · 215 games47% · 256 games
PangolierSrf
Pangolier
Muerta
MuertaBoBoKa
48% · 361 game49% · 158 games
Snapfire7e
Snapfire
Disruptor
DisruptorPoloson
48% · 183 games48% · 227 games
Clockwerkzzq
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 57%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3