BLAST Slam V. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticosloss 1:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ivorywin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangon Galacticos
Ursaoften banned
Ksh · 6 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Dragon Knight
Young PH · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Ivory
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 7 games
Tiny
Rupido · 7 games
Shadow Shaman
Dric~ · 6 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Rupido · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Dric~ · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Dric~ · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
471 picks · 242 bans
Disruptor
463 picks · 447 bans
Puck
355 picks · 953 bans
Pugna
322 picks · 367 bans
Warlock
304 picks · 147 bans
Earthshaker
289 picks · 469 bans
Tusk
289 picks · 221 bans
Batrider
287 picks · 635 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 36%
Hero pool strength54% Yangon Galacticos
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total56% Ivory
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:38
Yangon Galacticos 44%Ivory 56%
The model gave 56% on Ivory — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 41:03.
Game 2prediction correct30:40
Yangon Galacticos 46%Ivory 54%
The model gave 54% on Ivory — the game was taken by Ivory in 45:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterKsh
Shadow FiendKen
InvokerYoung PH
RazorRupido
58% · 49 games
Naga SirenTeehee
53% · 94 games
Shadow ShamanDric~
Game 3prediction correct15:33
Yangon Galacticos 48%Ivory 52%
The model gave 52% on Ivory — the game was taken by Ivory in 34:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidKsh
TerrorbladeRupido
PuckYoung PH
Void SpiritKen
48% · 72 games
SnapfireDric~
55% · 39 games
DazzleTeehee
Model check result
Model favoriteIvory · 56%
Series resultIvory 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3