Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticosloss 1:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Omega Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangon Galacticos
Terrorbladeoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Spectreoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Rikioften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Slarkoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Omega Esports
Batrideroften banned
Mac · 5 games
Grimstroke
cml · 4 games
Tiny
Boomy · 4 games
Brewmaster
Bok · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 3 games
Lion
cml · 3 games
Pangolier
Bok · 3 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Mac · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
126 picks · 233 bans
Puck
125 picks · 285 bans
Earth Spirit
112 picks · 93 bans
Void Spirit
105 picks · 159 bans
Phoenix
100 picks · 104 bans
Nyx Assassin
80 picks · 281 bans
Keeper of the Light
79 picks · 153 bans
Rubick
79 picks · 37 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% Omega Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:40
Yangon Galacticos 41%Omega Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 35:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RikiYoung PH
BloodseekerTino-
63% · 4 games
Ember SpiritMac
little data
Night StalkerBok
57% · 3 games
Outworld DestroyerBoomy
56% · 5 games
Nyx Assassincml
Game 2prediction missed47:33
Yangon Galacticos 41%Omega Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 43:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinYoung PH
AlchemistTino-
little data
BatriderMac
50% · 6 games
MarsBok
63% · 4 games
UndyingBoomy
little data
Lioncml
Game 3prediction correct32:38
Yangon Galacticos 43%Omega Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 42:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingYoung PH
Monkey KingMac
little data
Troll WarlordTino-
36% · 7 games
Void SpiritBoomy
little data
Shadow DemonBok
57% · 3 games
Ancient Apparitioncml
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 62%
Series resultOmega Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3