?
arrow_backBack to match
Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticosloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Omega Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yangon Galacticos

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
25%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
50%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
67%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
100%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Young PH · 2 games
50%
Spectre
Spectreoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
0%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
100%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
0%

Omega Esports

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Mac · 11 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Mac · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 7 games
86%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mac · 6 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Bok · 6 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 5 games
40%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Tino- · 4 games
25%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
cml · 4 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
397 picks · 894 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
369 picks · 539 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
320 picks · 583 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
286 picks · 529 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
285 picks · 248 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
255 picks · 165 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
239 picks · 391 bans
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 523 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 64%
Hero pool strength57% Omega Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total73% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:20
Yangon Galacticos 32%Omega Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 17:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkYoung PH
40% · 18 games43% · 3 games
Monkey KingMac
Monkey King
56% · 5 games
Troll WarlordTino-
Troll Warlord
57% · 3 games
AlchemistSam_H
Alchemist
73% · 7 games
Lioncml
Lion
Game 2prediction correct21:49
Yangon Galacticos 40%Omega Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 31:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinYoung PH
47% · 28 games64% · 7 games
Wraith KingTino-
Wraith King
little data
Dragon KnightSam_H
Dragon Knight
40% · 6 games
Storm SpiritMac
Storm Spirit
53% · 15 games
Death Prophetcml
Death Prophet
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 73%
Series resultOmega Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2