Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticosloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Omega Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangon Galacticos
Morphlingoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Rikioften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Spectreoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Omega Esports
Void Spiritsignature
Mac · 13 games
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 9 games
Batridersignature
Mac · 8 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Mac · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 7 games
Alchemistoften banned
Tino- · 6 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Sam_H · 6 games
Pangoliersignature
Bok · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
462 picks · 1018 bans
Void Spirit
428 picks · 619 bans
Mars
374 picks · 660 bans
Death Prophet
356 picks · 664 bans
Earth Spirit
338 picks · 295 bans
Phoenix
281 picks · 388 bans
Monkey King
269 picks · 852 bans
Rubick
263 picks · 175 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 68%
Hero pool strength60% Omega Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total57% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 57%
Series resultOmega Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect