PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticoswin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PRISM Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangon Galacticos
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Terrorblade
Ksh · 2 games
PRISM Esports
Brewmasteroften banned
seimei · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
423 · 2 games
Void Spirit
Bob · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
seimei · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bob · 1 game
Earth Spiritoften banned
Bob · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Karl · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
414 picks · 348 bans
Hoodwink
409 picks · 449 bans
Weaver
387 picks · 828 bans
Tiny
378 picks · 871 bans
Phoenix
358 picks · 746 bans
Pangolier
341 picks · 513 bans
Clockwerk
328 picks · 501 bans
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 562 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% PRISM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Yangon Galacticos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:16
Yangon Galacticos 58%PRISM Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 37:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverKsh
LinaKarl
Queen of PainYoung PH
Troll WarlordYoungGodLevi
50% · 34 games
LeshracXepher
Game 2prediction correct37:13
Yangon Galacticos 59%PRISM Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 38:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarciKsh
Troll WarlordYoungGodLevi
InvokerYoung PH
Earth SpiritKarl
44% · 40 games
JakiroXepher
Model check result
Model favoriteYangon Galacticos · 63%
Series resultYangon Galacticos 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2