Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticoswin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SESky Encore Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangon Galacticos
Tinysignature
Ksh · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Outworld Destroyer
Young PH · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Sky Encore Esports
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Spectreoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
345 picks · 313 bans
Tusk
283 picks · 269 bans
Marci
273 picks · 522 bans
Undying
252 picks · 455 bans
Pangolier
240 picks · 524 bans
Primal Beast
222 picks · 562 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 323 bans
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 121 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% Yangon Galacticos
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Yangon Galacticos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:31
Yangon Galacticos 58%Sky Encore Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 34:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidKsh
Ember SpiritAbat
Legion CommanderYoung PH
Game 2prediction correct52:29
Yangon Galacticos 60%Sky Encore Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 50:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinKsh
LinaAbat
Ember SpiritYoung PH
Model check result
Model favoriteYangon Galacticos · 68%
Series resultYangon Galacticos 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2