PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticoswin 2:1series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Essenceloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangon Galacticos
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Terrorblade
Ksh · 2 games
Team Essence
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
420 picks · 309 bans
Hoodwink
416 picks · 437 bans
Weaver
393 picks · 823 bans
Tiny
390 picks · 886 bans
Pangolier
363 picks · 513 bans
Phoenix
362 picks · 712 bans
Clockwerk
351 picks · 482 bans
Dragon Knight
307 picks · 535 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Team Essence
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Yangon Galacticos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:48
Yangon Galacticos 72%Team Essence 28%
The model gave 72% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 52:10.
Game 2prediction missed56:15
Yangon Galacticos 72%Team Essence 28%
The model gave 72% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Team Essence in 41:45.
Game 3prediction correct18:38
Yangon Galacticos 72%Team Essence 28%
The model gave 72% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 41:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteYangon Galacticos · 72%
Series resultYangon Galacticos 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3