DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangzhiganluloss 0:2series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangzhiganlu
No games played over 6 months.
nouns
Phoenixsignature
Fly · 12 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
YamSun · 11 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
YamSun · 9 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 9 games
Skywrath Mage
Lelis · 9 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 8 games
Clockwerksignature
Lelis · 8 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
257 picks · 374 bans
Grimstroke
256 picks · 430 bans
Phoenix
256 picks · 385 bans
Tusk
216 picks · 202 bans
Nature's Prophet
213 picks · 539 bans
Muerta
204 picks · 281 bans
Dark Willow
199 picks · 98 bans
Faceless Void
188 picks · 443 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 67%
Hero pool strength59% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total81% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:28
Yangzhiganlu 19%nouns 81%
The model gave 81% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 23:56.
Game 2prediction correct29:25
Yangzhiganlu 19%nouns 81%
The model gave 81% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 45:14.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 81%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2