Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Ybb Gamingwin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Supernovaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ybb Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Supernova
Hoodwink
sheep · 4 games
Mirana
sheep · 1 game
Rubick
sheep · 1 game
Snapfire
sheep · 1 game
Tusk
sheep · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
355 picks · 326 bans
Tusk
298 picks · 287 bans
Marci
273 picks · 518 bans
Undying
251 picks · 464 bans
Pangolier
243 picks · 542 bans
Primal Beast
229 picks · 585 bans
Shadow Fiend
219 picks · 335 bans
Snapfire
211 picks · 112 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Ybb Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Ybb Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:37
Ybb Gaming 62%Supernova 38%
The model gave 62% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by Supernova in 29:51.
Game 2prediction missed40:8
Ybb Gaming 62%Supernova 38%
The model gave 62% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by Supernova in 21:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteYbb Gaming · 62%
Series resultYbb Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2