CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
4Pirateswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 19 games
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 15 games
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 13 games
Dark Willow
mrls · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 13 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 13 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 12 games
Tiny
bottega · 11 games
4Pirates
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 33 games
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 31 game
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 25 games
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 21 game
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 18 games
Jakiro
PERDAN4IK · 17 games
Axesignature
мистер мораль · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
584 picks · 588 bans
Tiny
396 picks · 389 bans
Tusk
381 picks · 411 bans
Dark Willow
355 picks · 210 bans
Pangolier
345 picks · 505 bans
Terrorblade
334 picks · 718 bans
Nature's Prophet
322 picks · 634 bans
Puck
322 picks · 824 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 65%
Hero pool strength57% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total55% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:26
Yellow Submarine 48%4Pirates 52%
The model gave 52% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 40:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracMirele
SniperNattyNarwhal
Pudgebottega
BeastmasterOtaker
BristlebackInfernal
Primal Beastмистер мораль
Naga SirenXakoda
MarciPERDAN4IK
Pugnamrls
Shadow Shamanariel
Game 2prediction missed25:9
Yellow Submarine 48%4Pirates 52%
The model gave 52% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 33:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinybottega
PangolierNattyNarwhal
LycanInfernal
SvenOtaker
Storm SpiritMirele
Abaddonмистер мораль
Batridermrls
PugnaPERDAN4IK
Ancient ApparitionXakoda
Baneariel
Game 3prediction correct7:28
Yellow Submarine 47%4Pirates 53%
The model gave 53% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 38:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusabottega
Dragon KnightOtaker
PuckMirele
SniperNattyNarwhal
UnderlordInfernal
Slardarмистер мораль
Ancient ApparitionXakoda
Earthshakerariel
Tuskmrls
PugnaPERDAN4IK
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 55%
Series result4Pirates 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3