CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
4Pirateswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 19 games
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 17 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 14 games
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 13 games
Dark Willow
mrls · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 12 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 12 games
Puckoften banned
Mirele · 11 games
4Pirates
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 33 games
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 32 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 25 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 21 game
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 18 games
Jakiro
PERDAN4IK · 17 games
Axesignature
мистер мораль · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
585 picks · 591 bans
Tiny
388 picks · 383 bans
Tusk
379 picks · 416 bans
Dark Willow
360 picks · 212 bans
Pangolier
344 picks · 508 bans
Terrorblade
335 picks · 712 bans
Puck
323 picks · 829 bans
Nature's Prophet
316 picks · 636 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 64%
Hero pool strength58% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total58% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed47:16
Yellow Submarine 46%4Pirates 54%
The model gave 54% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 44:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerbottega
TerrorbladeOtaker
Monkey KingMirele
PuckNattyNarwhal
SlardarInfernal
Nature's ProphetPERDAN4IK
Snapfiremrls
Axeмистер мораль
DisruptorXakoda
Dark Willowariel
Game 2prediction correct11:21
Yellow Submarine 45%4Pirates 55%
The model gave 55% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 36:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaMirele
TimbersawNattyNarwhal
Faceless Voidbottega
Beastmasterмистер мораль
AbaddonInfernal
Queen of PainOtaker
EnchantressXakoda
Marciariel
Shadow Shamanmrls
UndyingPERDAN4IK
Game 3prediction correct26:35
Yellow Submarine 43%4Pirates 57%
The model gave 57% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 54:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinbottega
SniperNattyNarwhal
Queen of PainMirele
AbaddonOtaker
MarsInfernal
Enigmaмистер мораль
Naga SirenXakoda
Pugnaariel
Snapfiremrls
MarciPERDAN4IK
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 58%
Series result4Pirates 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3