Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 1:3series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:3
9Pandaswin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Centaur Warrunnersignature
pJonn · 18 games
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 13 games
Dark Willow
rue · 11 games
Tusk
aik · 11 games
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 10 games
Lunaoften banned
Satanic · 9 games
Puckoften banned
erase · 9 games
9Pandas
Undyingoften banned
Solo · 12 games
Alchemistoften banned
RAMZES666 · 11 games
Marsoften banned
Alberkaaa · 11 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 10 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Antares · 9 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Solo · 9 games
Earthshakersignature
kiyotaka · 8 games
Grimstroke
Antares · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
382 picks · 354 bans
Centaur Warrunner
357 picks · 565 bans
Vengeful Spirit
343 picks · 338 bans
Mars
342 picks · 517 bans
Techies
333 picks · 262 bans
Batrider
324 picks · 634 bans
Hoodwink
313 picks · 187 bans
Tiny
300 picks · 296 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% 9Pandas
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:33
Yellow Submarine 48%9Pandas 52%
The model gave 52% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 1:31:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenSatanic
Naga SirenDarkLord^
Primal Beasterase
Arc Wardenkiyotaka
Dark Seeremptiness
MarsAlberkaaa
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
Skywrath MageAntares
Rubickrue
PugnaSolo
Game 2prediction correct11:26
Yellow Submarine 50%9Pandas 50%
The model gave 50% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 33:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersawerase
Outworld Destroyerkiyotaka
Faceless VoidSatanic
GyrocopterDarkLord^
Primal Beastemptiness
MarsAlberkaaa
Techiesrue
Crystal MaidenAntares
Enchantressasdekor_r
PugnaSolo
Game 3prediction missed36:19
Yellow Submarine 49%9Pandas 51%
The model gave 51% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 36:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaSatanic
Arc Wardenkiyotaka
Kunkkaerase
GyrocopterDarkLord^
Magnusemptiness
BatriderAlberkaaa
Rubickrue
BrewmasterAntares
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
UndyingSolo
Game 4prediction missed32:37
Yellow Submarine 50%9Pandas 50%
The model gave 50% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 1:17:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersawerase
Zeuskiyotaka
LifestealerSatanic
SvenDarkLord^
Centaur Warrunneremptiness
Dragon KnightAlberkaaa
Shadow Demonrue
RubickAntares
Techiesasdekor_r
PugnaSolo
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 52%
Series result9Pandas 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 4