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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
9Pandaswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
emptiness · 31 game
58%
Techies
Techies
rue · 28 games
46%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 26 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 20 games
50%
Luna
Lunasignature
Satanic · 17 games
65%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 16 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 16 games
44%

9Pandas

Mars
Marsoften banned
Alberkaaa · 14 games
43%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Solo · 12 games
42%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DarkLord^ · 11 games
45%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Solo · 8 games
63%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Solo · 8 games
88%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Alberkaaa · 8 games
38%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Solo · 7 games
43%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
DarkLord^ · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
447 picks · 681 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
422 picks · 197 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
396 picks · 549 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
394 picks · 418 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
350 picks · 589 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
349 picks · 168 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
336 picks · 849 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
336 picks · 643 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total52% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:25
Yellow Submarine 49%9Pandas 51%
The model gave 51% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 41:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiriterase
47% · 108 games49% · 70 games
Chaos KnightDarkLord^
Chaos Knight
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSatanic
44% · 110 games46% · 75 games
Void Spiritkiyotaka
Void Spirit
Pangolier
Pangolierkasane
45% · 209 games57% · 336 games
Primal BeastAlberkaaa
Primal Beast
Rubick
Rubickrue
46% · 212 games57% · 181 game
Weaversayuw
Weaver
Enchantress
Enchantressasdekor_r
52% · 150 games56% · 127 games
Elder TitanSolo
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct30:6
Yellow Submarine 53%9Pandas 47%
The model gave 53% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 34:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSatanic
59% · 62 games56% · 66 games
Invokerkiyotaka
Invoker
Void Spirit
Void Spiriterase
47% · 66 games45% · 101 game
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Beastmaster
Dark Seer
Dark Seerkasane
58% · 161 game45% · 114 games
RazorDarkLord^
Razor
Enchantress
Enchantressasdekor_r
50% · 185 games44% · 99 games
UndyingSolo
Undying
Clockwerk
Clockwerkrue
54% · 149 games42% · 243 games
Rubicksayuw
Rubick
Game 3prediction missed15:27
Yellow Submarine 51%9Pandas 49%
The model gave 51% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 45:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
Brewmasterkasane
52% · 127 games52% · 206 games
WeaverDarkLord^
Weaver
Windranger
WindrangerSatanic
49% · 94 games43% · 64 games
Void Spiritkiyotaka
Void Spirit
Pangolier
Pangoliererase
49% · 213 games51% · 138 games
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Beastmaster
Dark Willow
Dark Willowrue
49% · 159 games50% · 245 games
Shadow Demonsayuw
Shadow Demon
Clockwerk
Clockwerkasdekor_r
52% · 157 games52% · 97 games
Elder TitanSolo
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 52%
Series result9Pandas 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3