EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aalohasquadloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Disruptor
Xakoda · 26 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 26 games
Snapfire
sayuw · 25 games
Tusk
mrls · 25 games
Void Spirit
Mirele · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 23 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Mirele · 23 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 22 games
alohasquad
Ember Spiritoften banned
спортик · 2 games
Bane
ALOHADANCE · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
Miyaoo · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Miyaoo · 1 game
Chenoften banned
Fishman · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
спортик · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Miyaoo · 1 game
Mirana
Fishman · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
534 picks · 789 bans
Tusk
497 picks · 349 bans
Dragon Knight
462 picks · 636 bans
Centaur Warrunner
449 picks · 561 bans
Shadow Demon
377 picks · 706 bans
Gyrocopter
355 picks · 565 bans
Mars
339 picks · 463 bans
Slardar
322 picks · 900 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% alohasquad
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed55:30
Yellow Submarine 61%alohasquad 39%
The model gave 61% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by alohasquad in 1:12:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritMirele
WindrangerShigetsu
Juggernautbottega
Ember Spiritспортик
OmniknightInfernal
TidehunterMiyaoo
Batriderprblms
GrimstrokeALOHADANCE
RingmasterHtrd
Ancient ApparitionFishman
Game 2prediction correct53:18
Yellow Submarine 62%alohasquad 38%
The model gave 62% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 37:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendMirele
UrsaShigetsu
Slarkbottega
Ember Spiritспортик
BatriderInfernal
Centaur WarrunnerMiyaoo
Tinyprblms
WarlockFishman
RingmasterHtrd
GrimstrokeALOHADANCE
Game 3prediction correct46:22
Yellow Submarine 64%alohasquad 36%
The model gave 64% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 42:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainMirele
WeaverShigetsu
Windrangerbottega
Shadow Fiendспортик
JakiroHtrd
MarsMiyaoo
BrewmasterInfernal
TuskALOHADANCE
Ringmasterprblms
BaneFishman
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 76%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3