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CCT Season 2 Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 0:2
alohasquadwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 29 games
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 25 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
mrls · 25 games
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 24 games
46%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 23 games
43%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 23 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 22 games
41%
Muerta
Muerta
bottega · 22 games
59%

alohasquad

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
спортик · 4 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Miyaoo · 3 games
0%
Bane
Bane
ALOHADANCE · 2 games
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
ALOHADANCE · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Miyaoo · 2 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Miyaoo · 2 games
100%
Tusk
Tusk
lupsione · 2 games
0%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Shigetsu · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
604 picks · 929 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 415 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
470 picks · 617 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
434 picks · 573 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
429 picks · 938 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
401 picks · 247 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 654 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
393 picks · 441 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:24
Yellow Submarine 66%alohasquad 34%
The model gave 66% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by alohasquad in 1:13:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
Zeusbottega
51% · 26 games49% · 64 games
WeaverShigetsu
Weaver
Brewmaster
BrewmasterInfernal
45% · 86 games50% · 65 games
Invokerспортик
Invoker
Viper
ViperDifference
50% · 90 games56% · 163 games
MarsCloud
Mars
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkprblms
48% · 253 games46% · 83 games
ClockwerkFishman
Clockwerk
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiHtrd
51% · 49 games56% · 129 games
RingmasterALOHADANCE
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed13:43
Yellow Submarine 69%alohasquad 31%
The model gave 69% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by alohasquad in 42:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDifference
51% · 364 games42% · 95 games
WeaverShigetsu
Weaver
Morphling
Morphlingbottega
55% · 148 games54% · 200 games
Beastmasterспортик
Beastmaster
Brewmaster
BrewmasterInfernal
43% · 99 games53% · 220 games
MarsCloud
Mars
Lion
Lionprblms
47% · 79 games49% · 234 games
RingmasterALOHADANCE
Ringmaster
Bane
BaneHtrd
60% · 178 games45% · 119 games
ClockwerkFishman
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 78%
Series resultalohasquad 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2