?
arrow_backBack to match
Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ASAKURAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pJonn · 14 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 12 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
rue · 11 games
27%
Tusk
Tusk
aik · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 9 games
22%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Satanic · 8 games
38%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pJonn · 8 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
rue · 8 games
50%

ASAKURA

Pugna
Pugnasignature
Hduo · 18 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 16 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
Lil · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
382 picks · 352 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
340 picks · 336 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
324 picks · 529 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
319 picks · 478 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
307 picks · 241 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
298 picks · 176 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
296 picks · 567 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
283 picks · 253 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength61% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:30
Yellow Submarine 42%ASAKURA 58%
The model gave 58% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 46:48.
Game 2prediction missed40:10
Yellow Submarine 42%ASAKURA 58%
The model gave 58% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 45:36.
Game 3prediction missed27:17
Yellow Submarine 42%ASAKURA 58%
The model gave 58% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 48:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 58%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3