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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
AVULUSwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 12 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
bottega · 10 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 9 games
44%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 9 games
56%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 9 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
mrls · 8 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 8 games
38%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
57%

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mo13ei · 41 game
39%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 26 games
46%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
dEsire · 23 games
57%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 17 games
65%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Smiling Knight · 17 games
53%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 17 games
35%
Warlock
Warlock
SoNNeikO · 17 games
29%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Smiling Knight · 16 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
505 picks · 542 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 427 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
354 picks · 369 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 509 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
322 picks · 703 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
303 picks · 553 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
302 picks · 195 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
298 picks · 435 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 31%
Hero pool strength52% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:25
Yellow Submarine 35%AVULUS 65%
The model gave 65% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 36:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doombottega
44% · 268 games59% · 280 games
BristlebackSmiling Knight
Bristleback
Leshrac
LeshracMirele
38% · 86 games53% · 65 games
LycanXibbe
Lycan
Mars
MarsInfernal
50% · 183 games56% · 223 games
Monkey KingWorick
Monkey King
Warlock
WarlockXakoda
45% · 188 games50% · 307 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Ringmaster
Ringmastermrls
49% · 182 games53% · 32 games
DazzleFly
Dazzle
Game 2prediction correct7:29
Yellow Submarine 35%AVULUS 65%
The model gave 65% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 27:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterbottega
51% · 323 games51% · 174 games
SvenSmiling Knight
Sven
Puck
PuckMirele
49% · 274 games50% · 439 games
BeastmasterXibbe
Beastmaster
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
40% · 180 games56% · 326 games
Monkey KingWorick
Monkey King
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetXakoda
52% · 242 games51% · 189 games
MarcidEsire
Marci
Tusk
Tuskmrls
48% · 391 game52% · 282 games
Shadow ShamanFly
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 75%
Series resultAVULUS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2