Yellow Submarine vs CyberHero — prediction UBFЗК · Dota 2

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UNIVERSE by FISSURE. Закрытая квалификация · BO3

result vs prediction

Yellow Submarinewin 2:0

series probability

75%25%

probability at match start · final 2:0

CyberHeroloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Lichsignature

Xakoda · 31 game

68%

Ringmaster

Xakoda · 23 games

52%

Clockwerksignature

Xakoda · 19 games

68%

Hoodwink

prblms · 19 games

53%

Tinysignature

Shigetsu · 18 games

67%

Batrider

not me · 16 games

50%

Kezsignature

Shigetsu · 15 games

60%

Pangolier

Rain · 15 games

53%

CyberHero

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

527 picks · 315 bans

50%

Dark Willow

432 picks · 191 bans

51%

Mirana

391 picks · 173 bans

52%

Ember Spirit

342 picks · 503 bans

58%

Winter Wyvern

329 picks · 299 bans

58%

Centaur Warrunner

312 picks · 310 bans

54%

Earth Spirit

304 picks · 510 bans

53%

Windranger

285 picks · 151 bans

49%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%

Hero pool strength56% Yellow Submarine

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total75% Yellow Submarine

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct47:24

Yellow Submarine 65%CyberHero 35%

The model gave 65% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 59:24.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo