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CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
eSpoiledloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 17 games
53%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 14 games
36%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 13 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 13 games
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
mrls · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 12 games
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 12 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
bottega · 11 games
45%

eSpoiled

Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 14 games
50%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 11 games
55%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Wein · 10 games
60%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 9 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 9 games
44%
Sven
Svenoften banned
ssnovv1 · 9 games
33%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Wein · 9 games
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
582 picks · 587 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
394 picks · 397 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
375 picks · 401 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 505 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
344 picks · 207 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
328 picks · 701 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
318 picks · 611 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
318 picks · 794 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% eSpoiled
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:11
Yellow Submarine 65%eSpoiled 35%
The model gave 65% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 36:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinbottega
53% · 81 game45% · 96 games
Svenssnovv1
Sven
Lycan
LycanInfernal
49% · 39 games52% · 103 games
Silencerasdekor_r
Silencer
Monkey King
Monkey KingMirele
56% · 97 games47% · 169 games
MarciWein
Marci
Dark Willow
Dark Willowmrls
52% · 111 games
Bane
BaneXakoda
50% · 40 games
Game 2prediction correct27:14
Yellow Submarine 65%eSpoiled 35%
The model gave 65% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 40:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinbottega
58% · 163 games48% · 265 games
Terrorbladessnovv1
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierMirele
47% · 227 games48% · 234 games
Shadow ShamanWein
Shadow Shaman
Underlord
UnderlordInfernal
45% · 48 games54% · 143 games
Pugnaasdekor_r
Pugna
Naga Siren
Naga SirenXakoda
58% · 111 games
Rubick
Rubickmrls
44% · 93 games
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 74%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2