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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
eSpoiledwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 20 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 20 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
mrls · 20 games
35%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mirele · 17 games
76%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 16 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 16 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mirele · 16 games
63%

eSpoiled

Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 17 games
41%
Disruptor
Disruptor
asdekor_r · 16 games
44%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 16 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 16 games
56%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 15 games
47%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 15 games
67%
Medusa
Medusasignature
ssnovv1 · 12 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
asdekor_r · 12 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
308 picks · 770 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
302 picks · 280 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
270 picks · 174 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
264 picks · 715 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
264 picks · 295 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
258 picks · 247 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
257 picks · 734 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
255 picks · 597 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total65% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:23
Yellow Submarine 55%eSpoiled 45%
The model gave 55% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 37:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirele
52% · 206 games51% · 205 games
Medusassnovv1
Medusa
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidbottega
50% · 26 games50% · 105 games
Void SpiritDifference
Void Spirit
Slardar
SlardarInfernal
46% · 51 game52% · 161 game
Shadow DemonWein
Shadow Demon
Warlock
WarlockXakoda
50% · 109 games58% · 109 games
Elder Titanasdekor_r
Elder Titan
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsayuw
39% · 188 games
Game 2prediction missed18:29
Yellow Submarine 56%eSpoiled 44%
The model gave 56% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 45:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenbottega
57% · 89 games52% · 35 games
Faceless Voidssnovv1
Faceless Void
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirele
46% · 219 games52% · 308 games
Storm SpiritDifference
Storm Spirit
Slardar
SlardarInfernal
52% · 49 games51% · 141 game
SnapfireWein
Snapfire
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonXakoda
55% · 151 game43% · 178 games
Pugnaasdekor_r
Pugna
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksayuw
45% · 154 games
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 65%
Series resulteSpoiled 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2