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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Rabbitloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 32 games
63%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 30 games
47%
Techies
Techies
rue · 28 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 25 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
rue · 20 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 20 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
asdekor_r · 19 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 19 games
53%

Evil Rabbit

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
QYQX · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 2 games
100%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
QYQX · 2 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
50%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 2 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
365 picks · 759 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
339 picks · 329 bans
55%
Weaver
Weaver
334 picks · 687 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
333 picks · 235 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
311 picks · 466 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
299 picks · 367 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
297 picks · 488 bans
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
284 picks · 603 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 75%
Hero pool strength55% Evil Rabbit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:5
Yellow Submarine 68%Evil Rabbit 32%
The model gave 68% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 26:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingSatanic
61% · 62 games44% · 196 games
Templar AssassinButterflyEffect
Templar Assassin
Underlord
Underlordkasane
57% · 56 games49% · 176 games
Doomxiaoyu154
Doom
Pangolier
Pangoliererase
47% · 268 games60% · 75 games
MarciQYQX
Marci
Enchantress
Enchantressasdekor_r
45% · 189 games53% · 205 games
Crystal MaidenLOyd
Crystal Maiden
Snapfire
Snapfirerue
40% · 77 games
Game 2prediction correct45:27
Yellow Submarine 68%Evil Rabbit 32%
The model gave 68% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 34:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingSatanic
54% · 60 games49% · 54 games
Shadow FiendButterflyEffect
Shadow Fiend
Invoker
Invokererase
51% · 71 game47% · 239 games
Primal Beastxiaoyu154
Primal Beast
Brewmaster
Brewmasterkasane
53% · 152 games52% · 183 games
PhoenixQYQX
Phoenix
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
47% · 148 games52% · 98 games
Spirit BreakerLOyd
Spirit Breaker
Batrider
Batriderasdekor_r
45% · 143 games
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 82%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2