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DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Kalmychataloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Lich
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 35 games
71%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 21 game
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Xakoda · 20 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
prblms · 19 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Shigetsu · 19 games
68%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 16 games
50%
Kez
Kezsignature
Shigetsu · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Rain · 15 games
60%

Kalmychata

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ani-san · 5 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
ani-san · 5 games
20%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 4 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ani-san · 4 games
75%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
ani-san · 4 games
25%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 4 games
25%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
JANTER · 4 games
25%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Ankou · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
514 picks · 332 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
439 picks · 238 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
401 picks · 178 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
349 picks · 320 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
328 picks · 505 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
297 picks · 289 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 510 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
289 picks · 131 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 43%
Hero pool strength59% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total67% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:32
Yellow Submarine 59%Kalmychata 41%
The model gave 59% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 1:01:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetrincyq
50% · 153 games46% · 228 games
Terrorbladeyowaai
Terrorblade
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightRain
42% · 146 games51% · 238 games
Keeper of the LightEthereal
Keeper of the Light
Doom
Doommangekyou
58% · 207 games50% · 145 games
Dark SeerAnkou
Dark Seer
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonprblms
50% · 160 games45% · 368 games
Dark WillowFernans
Dark Willow
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkaik
50% · 541 game57% · 228 games
Winter Wyvernani-san
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct36:20
Yellow Submarine 58%Kalmychata 42%
The model gave 58% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 41:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetrincyq
50% · 239 games54% · 316 games
Tinyyowaai
Tiny
Pudge
PudgeRain
46% · 68 games50% · 277 games
PangolierEthereal
Pangolier
Doom
Doommangekyou
53% · 310 games53% · 285 games
Centaur WarrunnerAnkou
Centaur Warrunner
Dazzle
Dazzleaik
49% · 170 games44% · 238 games
Dark WillowFernans
Dark Willow
Windranger
Windrangerprblms
48% · 518 games51% · 189 games
Winter Wyvernani-san
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 67%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2